Over the last several months I have researched various aspects of tornado formation for my science research class at school. Here is the abstract from my final paper.

Though tornadoes have devastated mankind for centuries, recent scientific discoveries could enable more timely and accurate forecasting that minimizes their harms. Among the necessary components of tornado formation is convection, a form of vertical heat transfer in the atmosphere that is measured in terms of adiabatic and environmental lapse rate. This research analyzed the effects of varying environmental lapse rates on tornado velocity. To test this relationship, a tornado simulation chamber was constructed using a 70 CFM bathroom exhaust fan. To adjust the environmental lapse rate within the chamber, a pan with water of different temperatures was placed in the base. Temperatures were adjusted so that ten tornadoes were observed within each interval of 5 °C from 0 °C to 25 °C. Maximum wind velocities were recorded over one minute time periods. A strongly positive correlation between environmental lapse rate and tornado velocity was found with a correlation coefficient of 0.92 and an R-squared statistic of 0.85. The results of this research could enable meteorologists to more accurately predict the probability of severe tornadoes and thus issue more effective forecasts. By recording the environmental lapse rate in a region at any given time, they can calculate the potential risk of the tornado in terms of its wind velocity. 

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Figure 1: Environmental Lapse Rate (Water Temperature) vs. Tornado Velocity
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Table 1: Average Tornado Velocity Within Each Interval of Water Temperature
☼ JB

 
Recently, I decided to try out a new type of chroma-key green screen- poster board. Coming in many colors and sizes, poster board seemed to be an excellent option. At Hobby Lobby, I found the perfect poster board. At only 89 cents per 22x28 inch board, this 12 point coated poster board is excellent for chroma-key. 

The results are much improved over those with my previous green screen. The picture quality is much crisper, and I no longer have the problem of  being transparent! I would recommend poster board as an inexpensive and effective type of green screen material

☼ JB

 
During the first semester of my Junior year, I did research on the societal impacts of severe weather. Here is the final copy of my research paper (my exam grade).

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http://static.guim.co.uk/sys-images/Guardian/Pix/pictures/2010/1/6/1262800927050/New-York-blizzard-of-1888-001.jpg

Most meteorologists will describe their interest in the weather as a lifelong pursuit- a passion that they have enjoyed since childhood.  Thus describes my interest in weather and meteorology. Growing up in Rochester, New York, I was fascinated by the lake-effect snow squalls, harsh thunderstorms, and torrential rain. The extreme power and influence of the weather amazed me. Mother nature could dump a foot of snow on the ground, shutting down the city for days, or obliterate neighborhoods with vicious tornados. At a very young age, I recognized the strength of severe weather, and the inability of the human race to fully avoid it.  

Throughout my childhood years, I frequently read books on meteorology, and scrutinized weather forecasting websites, developing a basic knowledge of weather, climate, and the atmosphere. I familiarized myself with the various types of weather, from hurricanes and blizzards to hail storms and heat waves, acquiring a rudimentary knowledge of the subject. Though I understood the scientific basis of the weather, I knew very little of its impacts, such as those I observed as a young child. I wondered how weather has specifically affected man and changed history as a result. 

When the option for researching the weather for this high school course arose, I jumped on the opportunity, and began research. I hoped to learn of the ways that weather has impacted the history of man in, both for better and for worse. I sought a greater understanding of not only the scientific causes of weather, but also of its social, economic, and cultural impacts on mankind.  

Through the early stages of my investigation, I learned of numerous weather events that have shaped American history both positively and negatively, from the devastating Blizzard of 1888 to the slight temperature decrease that allowed General George Washington to escape the grasps of the British army in the American Revolution.  I learned not only of ways that weather has directly affected man, but of the ways man has utilized the weather for successful operations, such as during the D-Day invasion in 1944. This early research has confirmed my childhood observations of the power and influence of weather. 

As I have thus learned through my independent research both in and out of school, weather has been both a powerful weapon and tool, influencing man in unimaginable ways. My main goal of research was to learn and understand these societal impacts on the course of history. Meteorologists agree that America has the most diverse weather and climate in the world, and as a result, has been highly influenced by the weather. Weather conditions have played a significant role in American history by both causing harm and serving as a tool for military success. 

Throughout American history, weather has served as a tactical weapon in military events. Even before modernized forecasting technologies, commanders still based their strategies around the weather. In the American Revolution, general George Washington successfully utilized a rapidly travelling cold front to allow his army to escape from the clutches of General Cornwallis and the British forces. During the day on January 2, 1777, Cornwallis made advances on the rebel army, pinning them against the Delaware River in Trenton, New Jersey. A progressively intensifying rainfall, however, forced Cornwallis to halt his progression for the night. According to David Ludlum, author of The Weather Factor, roads that evening were simply too muddy for travel. Though Cornwallis used the time to rest, Washington did just the opposite. An expert in meteorology for the time period, Washington constructed a brilliant plan to utilize the weather conditions for an escape (Abrams). The general forecasted the onset of a powerful cold front accompanied by a rapid decline in temperatures. He hoped that this cooling would be significant enough for the mud to harden and enable an escape. Confident in his predictions, Washington “…ordered all [the army’s] baggage to be removed silently to Burlington soon after dark” as they fled from their defensive position (Abrams). Not only did the temperatures descend, but they did so at the ideal time of 1:20 in the morning, right after moonrise (Ludlum). Temperatures would remain below freezing for the next twelve hours, allowing the rebel army plenty of time to escape on the solidified roads. Not only did the weather allow Washington and his army to avoid a potential defeat at Trenton, but it provided them the opportunity to launch a surprise attack early in the morning on Princeton, where they handily defeated the British forces (Ludlum). Due to the onset of one cold front, the tide of the Revolution changed, giving the colonists a more favorable position in the war. The weather, however, was only part of the story. Washington’s expertise in forecasting enabled him to recognize the weather patterns and use them as a military tool.  Because the weather played such an essential role in the American Revolution, it has had an important impact on American history in general.

Weather has impacted American military efforts in numerous other ways aside from simply being used as a tool- its has served as a powerful military weapon. One such event where the weather impacted the American war effort was during the War of 1812. On August 23, 1814, over 4500 British troops landed on the coast of Maryland with the sole intention of burning the nation’s capital in revenge for the American arson of York. America did not expect any sort of invasion, and thus its troops were “hastily assembled near the Potomac River” (Ambrose).  When the two armies fought on the following day, Britain handily won, “march[ing] quickly into Washington while American soldiers, government officials, and residents fled…” (Ambrose). After the British forces gained control of the capital, they torched nearly every building, achieving their retaliation. As the burning continued, a huge thunderstorm arrived from the West. While the American people feared the storm, British soldiers were familiar with powerful weather events in England and simply ignored it (Dole). The storm consisted of three phases, all of which had significant impacts on the outcome of the war. The onset of the storm brought high winds, which the British overlooked as insignificant. Within a matter of minutes, however, funnel clouds formed due to warm updrafts, and three tornados struck the center of the city (Ambrose).  These tornadoes just so happened to sweep directly through the British camp, taking many lives and destroying resources. The British troops, now fewer in number and without proper supplies, were forced to return to England. The third phase off the storm, and equally significant, was the arrival of torrential rainfall.  While the city was still burning, the rain quenched the raging fires, saving what was left of the capital. While significant damage still resulted from the British siege, the city was still partially intact, and could be rebuilt far more easily. In summary, the storm “…hit downtown Washington at a crucial time, forcing the British out of the city, and saving what was left of our capital” (Dole). This storm, as well as numerous other weather events, impacted American history in uncontrollable ways. In this case, the impact happened to be positive, and resulted in a shift in the momentum of the war. Britain was forced to end their offensive campaign and retreat, while America was able to recover from recent losses. Weather has the power to substantially alter military events due to its uncontrollable nature. 

The powerful nature of the weather has not only impacted military events, but also the daily lives of the people. In the late winter of 1888, such an event occurred, forever changing the eastern United States. The Blizzard of 1888 began in early March as a highly undeveloped low-pressure system hovering over the Canadian plains. As time passed, the system drew in moisture from the Pacific Ocean, becoming quite potent (Heidorn).  Meteorologists at the time expected the storm to quickly race across the upper Midwest in a path referred to as an “Alberta clipper”; it did quite the opposite, however. Preceded by a strong cold front, the system that had remained dormant over southern Canada traveled due south, converging with another storm system that had coated the Rocky Mountains with a moderate snowfall (Heidorn).  In an unusual set of circumstances, a powerful blizzard formed from the two storms, overtaking the Midwest and east coast. The most significant part of the storm began on March 11 as a “soft gentle rain in the last days of winter…”; due to the warm air masses in place throughout the eastern United States, the precipitation began as rain (Schwartz). Meteorologists at the time underestimated the power of the to-be blizzard, unaware of the strength it had accumulated over the Canadian plains. In a matter of hours, the gentle rainfall evolved into a ferocious blizzard, arguably the worst in American history. By March 14, the storm dumped a total of 21 inches of snow in New York City, and up to four feet of snow in isolated locations (“Great Blizzard of ’88 Hits East Coast”). The impact of the storm was perhaps the greatest of any blizzard; over 400 American citizens died, 200 of which were from New York. The storm left people stranded in the streets with nowhere to go. For weeks, it forced people to remain homebound as they waited for the snow to melt. The storm’s long-term impacts were also significant. The powerful blizzard led to the realization that the weather could play a significant role in the lives of the people, and that it could have effects more powerful that mankind could bear. Additionally, the storm led to technological advancements that were better suited for future storms, such as the construction of a subway system and movement of telegraph lines underground (Schwartz). As seen in the Blizzard of 1888, the weather has the potential to change lives and impact history significantly. Over the course of American history, weather events have had a significant role through their harmful effects. 

Even in relatively modern times, the weather still can change history. During the 1930’s, the Dust Bowl devastated the Great Plains, causing harm to its people and the land where they lived. The Dust Bowl began with relatively miniscule changes in climate that had a big impact. During the early 1930’s the Pacific Ocean and Gulf of Mexico cooled several degrees, reducing the amount of moisture evaporated into the atmosphere, and in turn, precipitation (Schubert). Additionally, this slight cooling weakened the jet stream, the upper level winds that guide the west-to-east flow of weather, causing it to recede southward (Oblack). Not only did storm systems during the 1930’s lack potency for significant rainfall, but they also travelled unusually far south, not usually affecting the Great Plains. The seemingly unimportant cooling in ocean temperatures by a few degrees during the 1930’s caused one of the greatest long-term weather events the world has ever seen. According to the Earth Institute at Columbia University, severe droughts resulting from the shift in the jet stream began in 1931, killing crops and animals (Cook, Miller, and Seager). When strong winds blew over the barren land resulting from droughts, massive dust storms, or “black blizzards”, formed. As a result of these dusts storms and severe droughts, over 35 million acres of cultivatable land were ruined by 1934 (Cook, Miller, and Seager). The Dust Bowl significantly impacted life in the Great Plains, causing starvation, illness, and economic hardship. The University of Illinois writes that “for eight years, dust blew on the southern plains [and] the simplest acts of life- breathing, eating, taking a walk- were no longer simple ” (Schwartz). The change in a few seemingly unimportant weather conditions had a major impact on American history that changed the course of that decade. 

Weather can serve as both a tool and a restriction for military operations. In the D-Day invasion, it was both. In 1944, the Western Allies planned a surprise landing in Northern France, which they hoped would help liberate the nation from Axis powers and open up a second front against Germany, splitting its armies. Because the amphibious invasion utilized numerous types of forces and a surprise element, it required the precise alignment of weather conditions. For instance, the Allied army needed hard, dry ground to make a successful landing and advance in France, while the navy required gentle winds (under 12 miles per hour) with good visibility and a full moon (“D-Day”). Due to these specific weather requirements, the Allies used several teams of expert meteorologists as forecasters, including the UK Met Office (Fenton). Though their predictions for the ideal day of attack often conflicted with the President’s, they finally agreed on June 6. Though this was an “ideal” day, historians estimate that the odds of all the required weather conditions occurring were only 1 in 13 (“D-Day: The Role of the Met. Office”). Despite these demanding requirements, the attack was successful, and the Allies handily won the battle, beginning their liberation of France (“Normandy Invasion, June 1944: Overview and Special Image Selection”). D-Day “…proved [to be] a psychological and physical blow to German military fortunes from which they would never recover” (“D-Day, the Normandy Invasion, 6-25 June 1944”).  It turned the tides of World War II, beginning the Allied offensive campaign that would eventually cause Axis powers to surrender. Without the near perfect weather conditions on June 6, the D-Day invasion may have failed, and the war may have ended differently. Without those precise weather events, the world we know today may not be the same. 

Throughout my research, I deepened my knowledge of the weather not only scientifically, but also culturally and socially. My studies expanded upon my pre-existing scientific knowledge of the weather, and caused me to appreciate its immense impact. Growing up in New York, I knew that severe weather could cause minor disruptions, but I never realized the level of significance the weather could really have. Through my research, I learned that severe weather could permanently change history and impact society. 

People naturally strive for the Good Life- that is, achieving success, happiness, love, and peace. Sometimes, the weather can interfere with these goals, transforming lives in unwanted ways. The weather is truly a powerful thing- though it cannot be controlled or regulated, it has the power to change history. Marcel Proust once said that “a change in the weather is sufficient to recreate the world and ourselves” (“Weather Quotes”). Through my research, I learned of the numerous ways that the weather has changed the world in the past. It is left up to our imagination to determine the ways in which weather will recreate our world in the future.

☼ JB